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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.